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To be sure, there are also key differences between today and the 1970s that may prevent a repeat of that era’s crisis. For one, the U.S. is now the world’s largest oil producer, topping even Saudi Arabia.
By day three of the campaign, at least four American troops had been killed, and Trump said Monday the operation could last “four to five weeks”—though he acknowledged it could run longer and declined to rule out the deployment of ground forces. The prospect of a protracted conflict heightens the financial stakes considerably, as Smetters’ models assume costs escalate sharply beyond the two-month mark. Fortune previously reported that the U.S. may rapidly run out of munitions, as previous war games indicate as little as a week’s worth of supplies, although the exact number is classified.